The unspoken truth about publishing 🎲

Where I unpack the unpredictable forces at play in your publishing journey

I was chatting with a client recently who was in the midst of querying and feeling frustrated. A decade ago, when she first queried, she landed an agent relatively quickly (who has since left the industry).

But this time around? Dozens of queries, but no traction. She was confident her writing had only improved and she had a more sellable story on her hands, so what changed?

I told her one of the hard truths about publishing—one that doesn’t get talked about nearly enough: luck plays a major role in this industry.

Of course, craft, strategy, and persistence all matter. But even the strongest query, the most polished manuscript, and the most determined author can’t control every factor that influences publishing success.

The good news? Understanding where luck comes into play can help you focus on what you can control—without spiraling over the things you can’t.

Right fit, right time

If querying were as easy as matching your book to an agent who represents your genre, every author with a viable manuscript would be represented. The “querying trenches” as we call them wouldn’t exist.

In reality, success in querying comes down to finding the right agent, at the right time, in the right headspace to fall in love with your book.

Consider all the factors that have to align:

• Timing: Agents frequently open and close to queries based on workload, client commitments, and market shifts. You could have the perfect manuscript for a particular agent, but if you’re querying when their inbox is closed—or right after they’ve taken on a similar project—the stars won’t align.

• Personal passion: Even if your book is within their preferred genres, an agent has to click with your story. Everyone in this industry has their own subjective tastes and preferences, and your book ultimately isn’t going to resonate with every agent (or every reader, for that matter). That doesn’t mean it’s flawed; that’s just the nature of storytelling.

• Market viability: But even loving a book isn’t enough—agents need to see a path forward for success in the contemporary publishing landscape. They have to believe they can sell your book to a publisher, which means considering current market trends, their connections with editors, and their existing client list.

And then once you have an agent? The same exact process repeats when your agent goes out on submission to editors. You need the right editor, at the right time, in the right headspace to fall in love with your book.

It’s a narrow funnel: thousands of queries pour in at the top, but with each stage of decision-making, competition tightens, subjectivity increases, and luck becomes an even bigger factor in what books ultimately break through.

I discussed all this with my client, whose confidence I could see waning. But rather than feeling crushed by the industry’s variability, realize that it can actually be freeing.

Here’s how to make this critical mindset shift that just might turn the publishing tides in your favor.